ganjaman Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 The Coral.ie Leopardstown Handicap Chase takes place on Sunday, 17th January, as part of the supporting card to the big Coral.ie (Handicap) Hurdle. It was formerly run over 3M but the distance was reduced to 2M 5F in 2009. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 0-1-6 7yo: 1-6-21 8yo: 0-11-49 9yo: 6-3-35 10yo: 2-2-30 11yo+: 1-1-14 8 of 10 winners were aged 9 or 10 The only winner aged younger than 9 in past 10 years was Foxrock in 2015, who finished 2nd in the grade 1 Irish Hennessy Gold Cup next time. Breeding Irish bred: 10-18-122 French bred: 0-4-16 GB bred: 0-2-14 Other: 0-0-3 10 of 10 winners have been Irish bred, though they have represented 78.7% of total runners. Progeny of Flemensfirth: P2960901431 (2-3-10) Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 5-6-38 Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 5-18-117 Horses carrying 10-13+ have won 5 of the last 10 from approximately 24.5% of the total runners. Top weight: 4115910600 (3-0-10) Horses carrying a penalty: 76 (0-0-2) Official Ratings Horses rated 135 or higher: 6-5-48 Horses rated 134 or lower: 4-18-107 Horses officially rated 135+ have won 6 of last 10 from less than 31% of the total runners. 7 of last 9 winners were rated 131 or higher. Recent/Past Form 8 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start (2 exceptions were 8th in a listed Cheltenham h'cap chase & 9th in Paddy Power Handicap Chase here) 7 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 137+ on last completed chase start 10 of 10 winners had run in the past 50 days 10 of 10 winners had run 2 to 5 times since 1st September 8 of 10 winners had run on the flat, over hurdles or in a P2P since 1st September 7 of 10 winners had won or placed at Leopardstown (2 exceptions having first course start) 5 of 10 winners had finished in first 4 in a grade 1 or 2 Novice Chase here 9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 5F or further 8 of 10 winners had previously run in 9 to 18 chases (2 exceptions had run in 4 or 6) 10 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicap chases 8 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (2 others had won 3 or 4) 9 of 10 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers (exception was a novice) 9 of 10 winners had contested a class 1 chase (exception had won Portertown h'cap chase) 9 of 10 winners had won or placed in a chase worth 18K+ Other Races Highest placed finisher from 3 For 2 Festival Tickets @Punchestown.com H'cap Chase: 29121 (2-2-5) Highest placed finisher from Troytown: 3P420000 (0-2-8) Ennis Lifts H'cap Chase winner (Hash Brown): P2 (0-1-2) Punchestown 3 For 2 Tickets Handicap Chase winner (Rossvoss): 5 (0-0-1) Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice H'cap Chase Final winner (Heathfield): 0 (0-0-1) Nas Na Riogh Novice Chase winner (Empire Of Dirt): P (0-0-1) 3 of 10 winners ran in Paddy Power Chase last time, finishing B92 2 of 10 winners ran in the Holden Plant Rentals Chase last time, finishing 24 2 of 10 winners ran in Weatherbys GSB Handicap Chase, finishing 13 2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Irish National, finishing 18 2 of 10 winners ran in the Kerry National, finishing 00 2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's Flogas Novice Chase, finishing 33 Trainers Ted Walsh (2-1-5) has trained 2 of the last 4 winners. The Sandra Hughes yard (2-0-13) has been responsible for 2 of the last 7 winners. Tony Martin (0-3-6) both gained 3 places from 6 runners in last 10 years. Arthur Moore (0-3-13) has gained 2 wins and 5 places from his 21 runners in this since 2002. His two winners both ran in that’s season’s Troytown. Michael Hourigan (0-2-4) has saddled 2 placed finishers from 4 runners since 2006. Willie Mullins (0-1-9) has done poorly in this, seeing just 1 of his 9 runners make the places since 2006. His last win in the race came back in 2001. Racing Style 2 of 10 winners made all 5 of 10 winners raced prominently with leaders 3 of 10 winners were held up in midfield or towards rear Since the trip was reduced to 2M 5F, 6 of 7 winners led or raced prominently, exception was held up in midfield. Price No very strong trend on the prices, though 8 of last 10 winners (including last 6) were priced between 6/1 & 14/1. Favourites (1-5-13) have won just 1 of last 10 runnings, giving a level stakes loss of 5.00. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 9 or 10 (or 1st or 2nd in a Grade A h’cap chase in past 12 months) - Irish bred - Carrying 10-13 or more (top weight does well) - Officially rated 131 or higher - Finished in the first 5 last time out in past 50 days - Run 2 to 5 times since 1st September 2015 - Run on the flat, in a point to point or over hurdles this season - Previously won or placed at Leopardstown (or first course start) - Finished in first 4 in a grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown - Second or third season chaser - Run 9 to 18 times over fences - Run in 8 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1) - Won or placed in a chase worth 18K+ - Ran in Holden Plant Rentals Chase or Paddy Power Chase last time - Tends to race prominently - Trained by Sandra Hughes, Ted Walsh or Tony Martin. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luptort Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 And the winner is? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daz2905 Posted January 13, 2016 Share Posted January 13, 2016 lol, i read that twice looking for the tip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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