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Football betting 04/09/2017


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I always post my views and picks on the football elsewhere so I've decided to post them here as well in the hope we can combine our knowledge of the game and crunch the bookies every now and then. I have won over £800 over the past month just doing the homework rather than random betting and it's paying off. I put a write up yesterday on Rotherham and to give them a go at 3/1 so here's my thoughts for tonights games;-



I didn't do too bad yesterday and avoided the France game. There's 9 games today in the World Cup Qualifiers and it's crunch do or die time for some countries and non more than group E were 4 of the 6 are still in with a shout of going to Russia next summer. I am going to focus on these games and not the "home and dry" games like Germany as I have pointed out before , there is not value in betting in these games.

My first game is:-

Armenia v Denmark 17:00 KO

Denmark lie in 3rd position on 13pts , 3 behind Poland who sit top of the group. Denmark need to win and hope Montenegro and Poland both slip up (which I will cover next). It's a must win game for Denmark as they have yet to play Montenegro away who are also on 13pts but +2 goals better.  Armenia are not as bad as you might think. They lost away to Poland 2-1 but they went down to 10 men in the 30th min, then scored an own goal before equalising only to lose Lewandowski 90th minute winner. There are also goals in them with a 3-2 home win against Montenegro followed up with  2-0 and a 5-0 wins all be it against poor opposition but still they scored. 

Montenegro then went and beat them at Montenegro 4-1 but Armenia scored and a close 1-0 defeat against Romania says that there certainly not whipping boys. They lost their game 1-0 in Copenhagen against the Danes in their first encounter and I think it will be a close fought game as Armenia's hopes of qualifying have gone and so will their nerves. Denmark are not littered with World class players but I still think they will more than likely go on and win the game but I'm sure Armenia will make them work for it and hopefully nick a goal along the way.

Denmark to win at 2/5 ?? I don't think so especially away , Armenia v Denmark just a simple BTTS ? yes at 11/10

And a shock ? Armenia to win 8/1  or Armenia to win BTTS a crazy 14/1

It's Armenia v Denmark BTTS 11/10 betfair




Poland v Kazakhstan 19:45 KO

If Poland win tonight  and Montenegro slip up they will be virtually home and hosed for Russia. The return fixture saw a 2-2 draw last September but I cannot see that happening tonight. I always like to bet on good teams after a heavy defeat and their 4-0 loss to Denmark Friday will make the players sit up  and make them ever so more determined to win later tonight. With only 2 games after tonights game left in such a tight group I can only see Poland comfortably winning this against very poor opposition. I don't know what it is with Poland but they don't travel well and seem to do all their winning at home.

Since Kazakhstan's 2-2 home draw to Poland Poland have gone on and won 5 out their 6 qualifiers and they can ill afford anymore slip up's like Friday's disastrous 4-0 loss away to Denmark.

Kazakhstan on the other hand have conceded 20 goals in 6 games shipping 3 in each of there last 2 and both at home. It's over for them  and I think Poland will take advantage of this especially at home grab a bag full just to get over the 4-0 defeat to Denmark on Friday.

-2 goals is a tight arse 8/11 bet365 but a far better 11/10 with betfair and -3 7/4 but I always feel that when teams go 3-0 they better teams tend to play the game out and are content to let it stay that way.

Poland -2 11/10 with betfair is my bet




it works out at a 4/1 double so I'm happy with that but I will be putting less on so;-

As for England ? , they might go on and wipe the floor with Slovakia tonight but a word of warning, Slovakia lie 2pts below England and are on a winning streak of 5 out of 5 in qualifiers. If they win here tonight Slovakia will go a point above us with 2 games to go. What more incentive do you need and if they happen to watch the first 80 minutes of the Malta v England DVD they'll fancy their chances. England offer no value what so ever regardless of the score because who is going to back Slovakia in England ? a few but not many so the more who back one team the less value you get but it doesn't always go that way ask France. Sometimes you back with your heart instead of your head and this is the case tonight.

England win they could be a minimum of 4pts clear with 2 to go and with an easy run in of Slovenia at home and lithuania you would think tonight could seal it if England win and Scotland fail to win.

I've weighed it up and England -1 goal is my bet and to do it late on at 11/10. With everything held on tonight I cannot see us cocking up again

England to win -1 goal 11/10


My first bet will be Armenia BTTS and Poland -2 and if Armenia duck at 5pm I will look at Poland -2 and England -1 in the hope Deli Ali and Harry Kane can actually transfer Spurs form to England



Good luck

Edited by goldringers
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