CORAL.IE HURDLE TRENDS 2016

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The Coral.ie (Handicap) Hurdle (formerly the Ladbrokes, Pierse, MCR & Boylesports Hurdle) takes place at Leopardstown on Sunday 17th January and is one of the major handicap hurdles on the Irish national hunt calendar. Run over 2 miles for 4yos and upwards rated 0-150, unexposed hurdlers have fared best with the last 10 winners all having had fewer than 10 previous hurdles starts.

 

 

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings:

 

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-6-60

6yo: 4-13-68

7yo: 2-2-59

8yo: 3-5-52

9yo: 0-2-18

10yo+: 0-2-19

10 of 10 winners were aged 5 to 8, though they did make up 86.6% of total runners.

The only 5yo that managed to win this in past 10 years was Final Approach, in 2011, who went on to win the County Hurdle off 16lb higher next time.

 

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

 

Horses carrying 10-11 or more: 0-10-76

Horses carrying 10-10 or less: 10-20-200

The last 10 winners have all carried 10-10 or less and are especially favoured in softer ground.

Top Weight: 02000083B23 (0-4-11) – last 3 top weights to make the frame were ridden by claimers.

Horses carrying a penalty (0-1-15) have a particularly bad record, gaining just one place from 15 representatives, 10 of which were sent off 12/1 or below (3 were favourite or co-favourite).

 

Official Ratings

 

Horses rated 127 or higher: 1-9-78

Horses rated 116 to 126: 7-15-139

Horses rated 115 or lower: 2-6-59

The last 10 winners were all officially rated 128 or lower.

The last 6 winners were officially rated 118 to 128.  

 

Recent/Past Form

 

9 of 10 winners won or placed last time (exception missed out on a place in a grade c h'cap hurdle by a short head on previous start)

10 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 119+ last time out (last 5 posted RPR of 127+ last time)

10 of 10 winners had their last start at Leopardstown, Punchestown or Fairyhouse

9 of 10 winners had run in the past 35 days

10 of 10 winners had run no more than 4 times that season

10 of 10 winners had run in 3 to 9 hurdles

9 of 10 winners had won 1 to 3 hurdles (exception had yet to win over hurdles but had finished 2nd on last 3 starts)

10 of 10 winners had run in no more than 5 handicap hurdles

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap hurdle (7 had yet to win one)

8 of 10 winners were second season hurdlers (one was a novice and the other was a 3rd season hurdler)

 

Other Races

 

Irish Daily Star Christmas Novice H'cap Hurdle winner (Whatsforuwontgobyu): 004 (0-1-3)

Cardinal Capital Handicap Hurdle winner (Ice Cold Soul): 074 (0-1-3)

Kerrymaid Hurdle winner (Modem): 6 (0-0-1)

Racecourse Of The Year Handicap Hurdle winner (Sir Scorpion): 6 (0-0-1)

REA Grimes Prorperty Consultants Hurdle winner (Buiseness Sivola): 00 (0-0-2)

Donohoe Marquees Maiden Hurdle winner (Gladiator King): 00 (0-0-2) 

Irish Daily Mirror Handicap Hurdle winner (Colla Pier): 0076 (0-0-4)

4 of 10 winners were placed in a hurdles race at Leopardstown Christmas meeting last time

3 of 10 winners ran in a hurdle over 2M to 2M 2F at the Punchestown Festival, finishing 653

3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in FKM Group Supporting Temple Street H'cap Hurdle, finishing 533

2 of 10 winners ran in a 2M H'cap Hurdle at Punchestown Winter Festival in November, finishing 31

2 of 2 Jessica Harrington-trained winners finished 2nd in Paddy Power One Account Multiple Ways To Bet H'cap Hurdle

 

Trainers

 

Willie Mullins (2-6-32) trained the winner in 2013, the first 2 in 2011 and trained 3 of the first 4 home in 2010. His 2 winners in past 10 years both had their previous start at Fairyhouse.

Jessica Harrington (2-1-15) has trained 2 of the last 10 winners. Both winners had finished 2nd in the Paddy Power One Account Multiple Ways To Bet H'cap Hurdle at the Leopardstown Christmas Festival.

Tony Martin (0-6-12) trained the winner of this in 2003 and seen 6 of his 12 runners in last 10 years make the places.

Gordon Elliot (0-3-8) has done well in this, saddling 3 places from 8 runners, with one of his unplaced runners finishing 6th of 30 in 2012. He has filled runners-up spot in 2 of last 3 renewals.

Noel Meade (0-0-20) has struggled in this race, failing to produce a single placed finisher from his 20 runners.

 

Price

 

9 of 10 winners were priced between 6/1 and 16/1

The one big shock in this race was Penny’s Bill at 50/1 in 2009, when a slightly fortuitous winner over the favourite, Psycho, in 2nd.

Favourites (0-3-13) have failed to win any of the last 10 runnings, their last win came in 2005.

 

 

Summary:

 

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

 

- Aged 6 to 8

- Won or placed last time (ideally at Leopardstown, Fairyhouse or Punchestown)

- Posted an RPR of 127+ last time out

- Run in past 35 days

- Run no more than 4 times this season

- Run 3 to 9 times over hurdles

- Run in 5 or fewer handicap hurdles (winning 0 or 1)

- First or second season hurdler

- Carrying less than 10-11

- Officially rated 118 to 128

- Placed in a hurdles race at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting

- Finished in first 5 in FKM Group Supporting Temple Street H'cap Hurdle

- Finished in first 3 in a 2M H'cap Hurdle at Punchestown Winter Festival

- Trained by Willie Mullins, Jessica Harrington, Gordon Elliot or Tony Martin

- Priced 16/1 or shorter.