CLARENCE HOUSE CHASE TRENDS 2016

[ganjaman]

The Sodexo Clarence House Chase takes place at Ascot on Saturday 23rd January. The race is run over 2M 1F and was formerly as a handicap chase prior to 2008, when the race upgraded to grade 1 status and ceased to be run as handicap. The 2013 renewal took place at Cheltenham.

 

 

 

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 8 runnings of this as a non-handicap:

 

 

Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 1-2-4

7yo: 2-3-12

8yo: 5-0-11

9yo: 0-5-12

10yo+: 0-0-14

Horses aged 6 to 8: 8-5-27

Horses aged 9+: 0-5-26

 

Breeding

 

French bred: 6-5-27

Irish bred: 1-5-17

GB bred: 1-0-6

German bred: 0-0-3

NZ bred: 0-0-1

French bred runners have won 6 of 8 runnings of this as a grade 1. Since 2002 9 of 12 winners were French bred and 1 other was German bred.

 

Recent/Past Form

 

8 of 8 winners had run 1 to 4 times since August

8 of 8 winners had posted an RPR of 160+ last time (7 of 8 had posted RPR of 169+ that season)

7 of 8 winners won last time (exception was 4th in the King George)

8 of 8 winners had run in past 50 days

7 of 8 winners had previously run in 8 to 19 chases (exception was Sprinter Sacre who won this on 7th chase start, after winning first 6)

6 of 8 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers (2 exception had finished in first 2 in a previous renewal)

6 of 8 winners had won a grade 1 chase

8 of 8 winners had won a graded chase (7 of 8 had won a graded chase that season)

7 of 8 winners had won a chase worth over £70K

7 of 8 winners (last 7) were officially rated 165+

 

Other Races

 

Tingle Creek winner (Sire De Grugy): 111111 (6-0-6)

Previous season's Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 311 (2-0-3)

Desert Orchid Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 2241 (1-2-4)

Arkle winner (Un De Sceaux): 1 (1-0-1)

Previous season's Heny VIII Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 2 (0-1-1)

Previous season's Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 2 (0-1-1)

Shloer Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 45F (0-0-3)

5 of 8 winners ran in Tingle Creek, finishing 111111

4 of 8 winners ran in previous season's Queen Mother Champion Chase, finishing 1F45

4 of 8 winners ran in Game Spirit Chase, finishing 1112

2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in Mahgull Novices' Chase, finishing 14 (exception was 5th in Manifesto Novice Chase)

2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 14

2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in previous season's Wayward Lad Novice Chase, finishing 11

2 of 8 winners ran in Celebration Chase, finishing 11

2 of 8 winners ran in Amlin Chase, finishing 12

2 of 8 winners ran in Melling Chase, finishing 23

2 of 8 winner (last 2) ran in Shloer Chase, finishing 23

 

Trainers

 

Paul Nicholls (4-2-11) has won 4 of the 8 runnings of this race as a grade 1.  

Nicky Henderson (1-5-7) has saddled 1 winner and 5 places from 7 runners since 2008, he also saddle the winner of this in 2004 & 2006, when race was run as a handicap.

Gary Moore (1-0-1) won this in 2014 with Sire De Grugy.

Willie Mullins (0-0-1) saddled Twinlight to be third in 2015.

 

Price

 

7 of 8 winners were priced under 5/1

5 of 8 favourites have won this since the race was upgraded to grade 1.

Favourites (5-4-9) have gained 5 wins in past 8 years, giving a level stakes profit of 0.65.

 

 

Summary:

 

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

 

- Aged 6 to 8

- French bred

- Run 1 to 4 times this season

- Posted an RPR of 160+ last time (posted RPR of 169+ this season)

- Won last start (ideally a graded chase)

- Previously run in 8 to 19 chases (or unbeaten over fences)

- Has previously won a grade 1

- Won a chase worth over £70K

- Officially rated 165+

- Won Tingle Creek, Celebration and/or Game Spirit Chase in 2015

- Finished in first 3 in Maghull Novices’, Melling or Amlin Chase

- Trained by Paul Nicholls

- Priced shorter than 5/1 (favourite does well).