ganjaman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 CLARENCE HOUSE CHASE TRENDS 2016 The Sodexo Clarence House Chase takes place at Ascot on Saturday 23rd January. The race is run over 2M 1F and was formerly as a handicap chase prior to 2008, when the race upgraded to grade 1 status and ceased to be run as handicap. The 2013 renewal took place at Cheltenham. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 8 runnings of this as a non-handicap: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 1-2-4 7yo: 2-3-12 8yo: 5-0-11 9yo: 0-5-12 10yo+: 0-0-14 Horses aged 6 to 8: 8-5-27 Horses aged 9+: 0-5-26 Breeding French bred: 6-5-27 Irish bred: 1-5-17 GB bred: 1-0-6 German bred: 0-0-3 NZ bred: 0-0-1 French bred runners have won 6 of 8 runnings of this as a grade 1. Since 2002 9 of 12 winners were French bred and 1 other was German bred. Recent/Past Form 8 of 8 winners had run 1 to 4 times since August 8 of 8 winners had posted an RPR of 160+ last time (7 of 8 had posted RPR of 169+ that season) 7 of 8 winners won last time (exception was 4th in the King George) 8 of 8 winners had run in past 50 days 7 of 8 winners had previously run in 8 to 19 chases (exception was Sprinter Sacre who won this on 7th chase start, after winning first 6) 6 of 8 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers (2 exception had finished in first 2 in a previous renewal) 6 of 8 winners had won a grade 1 chase 8 of 8 winners had won a graded chase (7 of 8 had won a graded chase that season) 7 of 8 winners had won a chase worth over £70K 7 of 8 winners (last 7) were officially rated 165+ Other Races Tingle Creek winner (Sire De Grugy): 111111 (6-0-6) Previous season's Wayward Lad Novices' Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 311 (2-0-3) Desert Orchid Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 2241 (1-2-4) Arkle winner (Un De Sceaux): 1 (1-0-1) Previous season's Heny VIII Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 2 (0-1-1) Previous season's Kingmaker Novice Chase winner (Vibrato Valtat): 2 (0-1-1) Shloer Chase winner (Sprinter Sacre): 45F (0-0-3) 5 of 8 winners ran in Tingle Creek, finishing 111111 4 of 8 winners ran in previous season's Queen Mother Champion Chase, finishing 1F45 4 of 8 winners ran in Game Spirit Chase, finishing 1112 2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in Mahgull Novices' Chase, finishing 14 (exception was 5th in Manifesto Novice Chase) 2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 14 2 of 3 second season chaser winners ran in previous season's Wayward Lad Novice Chase, finishing 11 2 of 8 winners ran in Celebration Chase, finishing 11 2 of 8 winners ran in Amlin Chase, finishing 12 2 of 8 winners ran in Melling Chase, finishing 23 2 of 8 winner (last 2) ran in Shloer Chase, finishing 23 Trainers Paul Nicholls (4-2-11) has won 4 of the 8 runnings of this race as a grade 1. Nicky Henderson (1-5-7) has saddled 1 winner and 5 places from 7 runners since 2008, he also saddle the winner of this in 2004 & 2006, when race was run as a handicap. Gary Moore (1-0-1) won this in 2014 with Sire De Grugy. Willie Mullins (0-0-1) saddled Twinlight to be third in 2015. Price 7 of 8 winners were priced under 5/1 5 of 8 favourites have won this since the race was upgraded to grade 1. Favourites (5-4-9) have gained 5 wins in past 8 years, giving a level stakes profit of 0.65. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 6 to 8 - French bred - Run 1 to 4 times this season - Posted an RPR of 160+ last time (posted RPR of 169+ this season) - Won last start (ideally a graded chase) - Previously run in 8 to 19 chases (or unbeaten over fences) - Has previously won a grade 1 - Won a chase worth over £70K - Officially rated 165+ - Won Tingle Creek, Celebration and/or Game Spirit Chase in 2015 - Finished in first 3 in Maghull Novices’, Melling or Amlin Chase - Trained by Paul Nicholls - Priced shorter than 5/1 (favourite does well). THYESTES HANDICAP CHASE TRENDS 2016 The Goffs Thyestes Handicap Chase is one of the highlights on the Irish National Hunt calendar each year and takes place at Gowran Park on Thursday 21st January. The race can often throw up clues for the Irish and Aintree Grand Nationals later in the season with Hedgehunter and Numbersixvalverde featuring amongst the winners since 2000, while last 2 winners, On His Own and Djakadam, both almost followed up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. 7 of last 10 winners had contested the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, Tim Duggan Memorial at Limerick or Welsh National at Chepstow over Christmas. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 runnings: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 1-0-3 7yo: 1-4-22 8yo: 2-6-37 9yo: 3-12-47 10yo: 2-7-45 11yo+: 1-1-22 Horses aged 6 to 9: 7-22-109 Horses aged 10+: 3-8-67 All 3 winners aged 10+ had won or placed in the race in previous 2 years. Since 1990 there have only been four 6yo runners, 4/1 favourite fell in 1994, 25/1 unplaced in 1998, 4/1 joint favourite fell in 2013 and 9/2 winner in 2015. Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 11-6 or more: 3-1-12 Horses carrying 11-0 to 11-5: 0-7-27 Horses carrying 10-6 to 10-13: 2-9-65 Horses carrying 10-5 or less: 5-13-72 The 4 winners to carry 10-9+ to victory were Preists Leap in 2009 (won the race previous year), Siegemaster in 2011 (3rd the previous year), On His Own in 2014 (won this in 2012) and Djakadam, who went on to finish 2nd in the Cheltenham Gold Cup next time. Top Weight: 4F42010U91 (2-3-10) Official Ratings Horses rated 138 or higher: 3-7-27 Horses rated 128 to 137: 1-8-72 Horses rated 127 or lower: 6-15-77 In past 5 years, horses rated 138+ have gained 3 wins and 3 places from 13 runners. Recent/Past Form 8 of 10 winners had won or placed on one or both of last two completed starts 8 of 10 winners had won over at least 3 miles 10 of 10 winners had run in 7 or fewer handicap chases 7 of 10 winners had run in 4 to 11 chases (3 exceptions had run in 16-17 chases previously) 6 of 10 winners were second season chasers (4 exceptions finished in first 3 in a previous renewal) 8 of 10 winners had had a run since Christmas (1 exception was a previous winner of the race) 6 of 10 winners ran at Leopardstown or Limerick Christmas meetings 8 of 10 winners had won or placed in a class 2/grade C or higher chase Other Races Fred Kenny Lifetime Novice Handicap Chase winner (Aurora Bell): 4 (0-1-1) Irish Stallion Farms EBF Novice H'cap Chase winner (Heathfield): 72 (0-1-2) At The Races Carey's Cottage Cup Handicap Chase winner (Toon River): 30 (0-1-2) Troytown Handicap Chase winner (Riverside City): 855 (0-0-3) Previous season's Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Wounded Warrior): 0F5P (0-0-4) 4 of 10 winners ran in the Paddy Power Chase last time, finishing FF8B 3 of 10 winners ran in Troytown, finishing 044 3 of 10 winners ran in previous year's race, finishing 133 2 of 10 ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial Handicap Chase, finishing 73 2 of 10 winners ran in previous Irish National, finishing 7F Trainers Willie Mullins (4-6-25) has trained 6 winners since 2000 and has won 3 of the last 4 runnings. Tony Martin (1-3-6) won this in 2006 and seen 5 of his 6 runners since 2006 make first 5. Joseph Mangan (1-0-4) won this in 2010. Jim Dreaper (0-2-5) has saddled a placed finisher in each of the past 2 years. Noel Meade (0-0-9) has not had much luck in this, with his 17 runners since 2000 all finishing unplaced. Running Style 2 of 10 winners led/made all 4 of 10 winners tracked leaders 3 of 10 winners were settled in mid-division 1 of 10 winners were held up towards rear 5 of last 6 winners led or tracked leaders. Price No strong trends on the prices with 6 of 10 winners have gone off between 10/1 & 20/1. Favourites (1-5-12) have gained just 1 win in the past 10 year, giving a level stakes loss of 6.75. Last winning favourite was back in 2006. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 6 to 9 (or won/placed in a previous Thyestes) - Officially rated 138 or higher - Has run since Christmas (ideally at Limerick or Leopardstown Festivals) - Won or placed on one or both of last 2 completed chase starts - Has won over 3M+ - Run in 7 or fewer handicap chases - Second season chaser (or placed in a previous Thyestes) - Previously won or placed in a Grade C or higher chase - Ran in the Tim Duggan Memorial or Paddy Power Chase in December - Placed in 2015 Troytown and/or Thyestes Chase - Tends to race prominently - Trained by Willie Mullins, Tony Martin or Jim Dreaper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ganjaman Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 IRISH CHAMPION HURDLE TRENDS 2016 The BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle takes place at Leopardstown on Sunday 24th January. The race has been won by some of the best Irish hurdlers of recent times including Brave Inca, Hardy Eustace, Istabraq and Hurricane Fly, who won the last 5 renewals. The two key races, which provide pointers for this recently, are the Punchestown Champion Hurdle and Ryanair Hurdle. Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 4yo: 0-0-2 5yo: 0-1-11 6yo: 2-3-11 7yo: 1-3-12 8yo: 2-1-8 9yo: 1-2-6 10yo+: 4-1-12 6yos have the best individual record having won 5 of the last 14 renewals and were not represented in 5 of the other 9 runnings since 2002. 6 of 7 winners 8+ had previously won the Cheltenham Champion Hurdle (other was 3rd in previous season’s Champion Hurdle) Recent/Past Form 10 of 10 winners finished in first 3 last time (8 won last time out) 8 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 160+ last time (2 exceptions posted RPR's of 151 & 157) 9 of 10 winners had run 2 or 3 times that season (exception was making seasonal debut but had won previous year's race) 9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 hurdle (exception had won the grade 3 Greatwood handicap hurdle and was having his first run at grade 1 level) 9 of 10 winners had previously won at Leopardstown (1 exception was placed on both previous runs here) 9 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+ Other Races Punchestown Champion Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 13111111 (7-0-8) Leopardstown Festival Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): 1234114111 (6-1-10) Morgiana Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): 185123111 (5-1-9) Champion Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 72113 (2-1-5) Hatton's Grace winner (Arctic Fire): 2P14 (1-1-4) Deloitte Novice Hurdle winner (Nichols Canyon): 2 (0-1-1) Kempton Christmas Hurdle winner (Faugheen): 5 (0-0-1) Tipperary Hurdle winner (Plinth): 43 (0-0-2) WKD Hurdle winner (Identity Thief): 8P4 (0-0-3) 8 of 10 winners ran in the Punchestown Champion Hurdle, finishing 13111112 7 of 10 winners ran in the Ryanair Hurdle last time, finishing 1311111 6 of 10 winners finished ran in previous Cheltenham Champion Hurdle, finishing 341314 6 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Irish Champion Hurdle, finishing 271111 5 of 10 winners ran in the Morgiana, finishing 11111 3 of 10 winners ran in the Aintree Hurdle, finishing F21 3 of 10 winners had run in the Hatton's Grace, finishing 321 Trainers Willie Mullins (5-2-11) saddled Hurricane Fly to win this for past 5 years. Henry De Bromhead (1-0-1) trained Sizing Europe to win this in 2008. Jessica Harrington (0-3-6) trained the winner in 2005 and has seen 3 of her 6 runners in last 10 years get placed. Aidan O’Brien (0-0-1) trained Istabraq to win this 4 times between 1998 & 2001. His only runner in the past 10 years was 5th in 2015. Price 9 of 10 winners (last 8) were priced 10/3 or shorter Favourites (7-2-11) have won 7 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 2.12. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse: - Aged 6 or a previous Cheltenham Champion Hurdle winner - Won last time out (finished no worse than 3rd) - Posted an RPR of 160+ last time - Run 2 or 3 times this season - Previously won a grade 1 hurdle - Previously won at Leopardstown - Finished in first 4 in 2015 Champion Hurdle - Finished in first 3 in 2015 Irish Champion and/or Hatton’s Grace Hurdle - Won the Ryanair, Morgiana and/or Punchestown Champ Hurdle - Priced 10/3 or shorter (favourite has a strong record]. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ktv303 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 any chance of suggesting some horses mate.....been flipping between your post and skybets all morning trying to match up horses with little luck to be honest Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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