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The Betfred Classic Chase, which takes place at Warwick on Saturday 16th January, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5F and is generally a good test of a horse’s Grand National credentials.




Below we take a look at the trends for 10 runnings since 2004:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)

6yo: 0-0-3

7yo: 2-6-16

8yo: 2-8-27

9yo: 3-4-33

10yo: 2-1-26

11yo: 1-1-17

12yo+: 0-1-15

No strong trend on ages, though 5 of 6 winners aged 9+ were Irish bred, 2 of 4 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred.




Irish bred: 6-11-80

GB bred: 2-6-28

French bred: 2-4-28

USA bred: 0-0-1

Irish bred runners have won 6 of the last 10 runnings, though they have represented around 58.4% of the total runners.

French bred horses aged 8 or younger have a record of 2-4-15 whereas those aged 9 or older have a record of 0-0-13.

Progeny of Kayf Tara: 2651 (1-1-4)

Progeny of King's Theatre: 332 (0-3-3)


Weight (Win-Place-Runners)


Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 7-10-71

Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 3-11-66

In recent years horses carrying bigger weights have dominated with 7 of last 8 winners and 15 of the 24 placed finishers in past 8 renewals carrying 10-9 or more.

Top weight: FPB0P361523 (1-2-11)


Official Ratings


Horses rated 141 or higher: 2-4-25

Horses rated 129 to 140: 7-11-73

Horses rated 128 or lower: 1-6-39

In past 8 runnings, the trend has been towards higher rated runners:

Horses rated 133 or higher: 7-10-56

Horses rated 132 or lower: 1-6-53


Recent/Past Form


9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start (exception was 12th in Hennessy)

10 of 10 winners has posted an RPR of 133+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts


10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days

8 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ at a left handed track (2 exceptions posted highest RPR in 3M+ chase)

10 of 10 winners had run in 16 or fewer chases

8 of 10 winners had gained 1 or 2 previous chase wins

10 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase

7 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase (1 exception had won a class 2 chase by a distance and another was runner-up in a grade 2 hurdle)


Other Races


Southern National winner (Golden Chieftain): P (0-0-1)

3 of 10 winners ran in Murphy Group Handicap Chase, finishing 4P4

2 of 10 winners ran in Welsh Grand National last time, finishing FP

2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Grand National, finishing 00

2 of 10 winners ran in 3M 1F H'cap Chase at Cheltenham Festival, finishing 8P

2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing 06




Paul Nicholls (3-0-9) won back to back runnings in 2006 & 2007 and also saddled last year’s winner.

Alan King (2-2-8) has a fine record, having won 2 of last 6 and saddled runner-up in 2013. 

Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-13) has had 1 win and 2 places from last 13 runners in this.

Colin Tizzard (1-1-3) trained the winner in 2012 & runner-up in 2015.

Venetia Williams (1-1-9) has gained 1 win & 3 places from her last 12 runners.




No very strong trend on the prices, with 8 of 10 winners priced between 9/2 & 11/1 and the other 2 going off at 14/1 & 18/1.  

Favourites (1-3-11) have won just one running since 2000, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50 over past 10 renewals.





Based on the trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse:


- Carrying 10-9 or more

- Officially rated 133 or higher

- Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 50 days

- Posted an RPR of 133+ in one or both of last 2 starts

- Won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track

- Previously won once or twice over fences

- Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1)

- Previously contested a graded chase

- Previously run in the Aintree, Welsh or Scottish Grand National

- Finished in first 4 in Murphy Group Handicap Chase

- Trained by Alan King, Paul Nicholls or Colin Tizzard.

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