ganjaman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 The Betfred Classic Chase, which takes place at Warwick on Saturday 16th January, is a grade 3 handicap chase run over 3M 5F and is generally a good test of a horse’s Grand National credentials. Below we take a look at the trends for 10 runnings since 2004: Age (Win-Place-Runners) 6yo: 0-0-3 7yo: 2-6-16 8yo: 2-8-27 9yo: 3-4-33 10yo: 2-1-26 11yo: 1-1-17 12yo+: 0-1-15 No strong trend on ages, though 5 of 6 winners aged 9+ were Irish bred, 2 of 4 winners aged 8 or younger were French bred. Breeding Irish bred: 6-11-80 GB bred: 2-6-28 French bred: 2-4-28 USA bred: 0-0-1 Irish bred runners have won 6 of the last 10 runnings, though they have represented around 58.4% of the total runners. French bred horses aged 8 or younger have a record of 2-4-15 whereas those aged 9 or older have a record of 0-0-13. Progeny of Kayf Tara: 2651 (1-1-4) Progeny of King's Theatre: 332 (0-3-3) Weight (Win-Place-Runners) Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 7-10-71 Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 3-11-66 In recent years horses carrying bigger weights have dominated with 7 of last 8 winners and 15 of the 24 placed finishers in past 8 renewals carrying 10-9 or more. Top weight: FPB0P361523 (1-2-11) Official Ratings Horses rated 141 or higher: 2-4-25 Horses rated 129 to 140: 7-11-73 Horses rated 128 or lower: 1-6-39 In past 8 runnings, the trend has been towards higher rated runners: Horses rated 133 or higher: 7-10-56 Horses rated 132 or lower: 1-6-53 Recent/Past Form 9 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 on their last completed start (exception was 12th in Hennessy) 10 of 10 winners has posted an RPR of 133+ in 1 or both of last 2 completed starts 10 of 10 winners had run in past 50 days 8 of 10 winners had won a chase over 3M+ at a left handed track (2 exceptions posted highest RPR in 3M+ chase) 10 of 10 winners had run in 16 or fewer chases 8 of 10 winners had gained 1 or 2 previous chase wins 10 of 10 winners had run in 11 or fewer handicap chases 9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase 7 of 10 winners had contested a graded chase (1 exception had won a class 2 chase by a distance and another was runner-up in a grade 2 hurdle) Other Races Southern National winner (Golden Chieftain): P (0-0-1) 3 of 10 winners ran in Murphy Group Handicap Chase, finishing 4P4 2 of 10 winners ran in Welsh Grand National last time, finishing FP 2 of 10 winners ran in previous year's Grand National, finishing 00 2 of 10 winners ran in 3M 1F H'cap Chase at Cheltenham Festival, finishing 8P 2 of 10 winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing 06 Trainers Paul Nicholls (3-0-9) won back to back runnings in 2006 & 2007 and also saddled last year’s winner. Alan King (2-2-8) has a fine record, having won 2 of last 6 and saddled runner-up in 2013. Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-2-13) has had 1 win and 2 places from last 13 runners in this. Colin Tizzard (1-1-3) trained the winner in 2012 & runner-up in 2015. Venetia Williams (1-1-9) has gained 1 win & 3 places from her last 12 runners. Price No very strong trend on the prices, with 8 of 10 winners priced between 9/2 & 11/1 and the other 2 going off at 14/1 & 18/1. Favourites (1-3-11) have won just one running since 2000, giving a level stakes loss of 4.50 over past 10 renewals. Summary: Based on the trends from the past 10 runnings you are looking for a horse: - Carrying 10-9 or more - Officially rated 133 or higher - Finished in first 3 on last completed start in past 50 days - Posted an RPR of 133+ in one or both of last 2 starts - Won a chase over 3M+ at a left-handed track - Previously won once or twice over fences - Run in 11 or fewer handicap chases (winning no more than 1) - Previously contested a graded chase - Previously run in the Aintree, Welsh or Scottish Grand National - Finished in first 4 in Murphy Group Handicap Chase - Trained by Alan King, Paul Nicholls or Colin Tizzard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ktv303 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 too much info for me mate....if you figure one out give us a shout eh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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